Koizumi’s Next Act

By framing Japan’s Sept. 11 parliamentary election as a referendum on his postal-privatization plan and outmaneuvering his rival with dextrous political campaigning, Japanese Koizumi has scored his greatest victory, helping the ruling Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) to its biggest majority since 1986. The encore, however, could prove trickier. Koizumi’s postal-reform bill, aimed at breaking Japan’s $3 trillion postal service into four separate companies by 2017, will be re-submitted at a special Diet session this week and is all but guaranteed to pass. His plans beyond that are hazy. Koizumi has promised to step down when his term as party president (and thus Prime Minister) expires in September 2006. But “one year is not enough to implement long-term policies,’ say political commentator Minoru Morita-meaning that other goals Koizumi once espoused, such as pension reform and slashing Japan’s fiscal deficit, could be left on the shelf. And Koizumi’s mandate is still fragile. Although the election aligned the LDP on postal reform, the party is far from united on other issues. A survey of lower-house members by the Mainichi Shimbun revealed huge rifts in the LDP on everything from education funding to nuclear armament.
Some wonder if the desire to drive through more of his oft-deferred reforms could spur Koizumi to extend his tenure. But he already appears to be handing tough choices off to his unnamed successor. He has avoided discussing any substantial reforms beyond postal privatization, and while LDP party secretary Tsutomu Takebe has admitted that mounting social-services costs have made a consumption tax hike imminent. Koizumi has committed not raise them. With tough battles yet to come, University of Kyoto politics professor Terumasa Naakanishi and others believe stepping down as promised ma be Koizumi’s smartest move-leaving his legacy. If not his agenda, intact.